April 06, 2026 – Last week’s economic updates indicate that the U.S labor market had a solid rebound in job growth and a pickup in retail sales, even as wage gains cooled and confidence remained sensitive to rising gas prices and geopolitical risk. Housing signals are mixed: homebuying expectations have softened alongside higher rates, while apartment vacancies climbed to 7.3%—the highest since 2017—keeping rents under pressure. If elevated rates, shakier labor participation, and energy-driven inflation persist, we could see slower demand, longer time on market, and renewed price volatility in coming months.

U.S. job growth had a sharp bounce-back again after falling in the prior month: Nonfarm payrolls recovered solidly in March after a deep dive in February, as the job market continued to fluctuate from gains to losses for the past 11 months. The U.S. labor market added a seasonally adjusted 178k in March - the largest increase observed since December 2024, after dropping a revised 133k jobs in the prior months. The national job growth far exceeded the consensus estimate of around 60k, and health care (+76k) was responsible for much of the gain, as many workers at Kaiser Permanente went back to work after the strike in February. Leisure and hospitality also added 44k jobs, while construction added 26k jobs last month. The federal government, on the other hand, lost another 18k jobs, which more than offset the net hiring at the local levels. With a solid job-growth last month, the unemployment rate dipped to 4.3% in March from 4.4% in February. The drop, however, was largely due to a decline of 396k in the labor force. Meanwhile, wages increased less than expected with average hourly earnings rising 3.5% from a year ago, reaching the lowest level since May 2021. With Americans getting smaller pay raises while higher gas prices putting upward pressure on inflation, households could become more cautious with their spending in the months ahead.

Retail sales increase at the highest level in seven months: Consumer spending was on solid footing in February before the Iran war as retail sales rose 0.6% from January and recorded the largest jump since last July, according to the Commerce Department. On a year-over-year basis, non-inflation adjusted sales for retail trade and food services went up by 3.7% from February 2025, the highest in the past five months. Sales increased on a monthly basis in all categories except for grocery stores and furniture stores. Sales at food and drinking places – an indicator used by economists to measure household finances – rebounded 0.4% from the monthly dip of 0.2% recorded in January. Bigger tax refunds this year could be the driving factor for the surge in retail sales in February, as the average federal tax refund is estimated to be up about 11% from last year due to tax law changes enacted in mid-2025. Higher gasoline prices triggered by the conflict in the Middle East, however, could offset some of the anticipated boost in consumer spending from the tax cut. How much of an impact the war has on retail sales will depend on the duration of the war.    

Apartment vacancy rate reaches highest level since 2017: The U.S. multifamily median rent climbed for the second straight month in March but continued to dip on a year-over-year basis, according to the latest Apartment List National Rent Report. With the market moving out its slow season, the national median price inched up 0.4% month-over-month in March, registering its second consecutive monthly increase after six straight months of rent declines. On a year-over-year basis, however, rents were down 1.7% from 12 months ago and the drop in the median was the biggest decline on record since Apartment List started tracking in 2017. Multifamily vacancy rate at the national level also climbed to the highest level since 2017, reaching 7.3% at the end of the first quarter. While the delivery of new units has already started slowing down from a year ago, supply growth remains above the long run average this year so far. With more vacant units sitting on the market, the list-to-lease time remained elevated at 38 days but down from the record-high 40 days registered last month. As the job market remains shaky and inflation concerns flares up again, weak rental demand will continue, and the market could stay soft in the near term.

Consumer confidence ticks up in March despite soaring gas prices: The U.S. Consumer Confidence Index edged up slightly by 0.8 points in March from 91.0 in February, according to the Conference Board. Consumers felt more positive about current business conditions and their perceptions of employment conditions also improved slightly. The net views of their family’s current financial situation edged up in March after a February retreat, possibly due to an increase in tax refunds. Expectations for their future financial situation, however, continued to be less optimistic. Soaring gasoline prices could be a driving factor for the pessimism as comments about oil/gas and war/conflict spiked. Homebuying expectations were somewhat lower, and the recent surge in rates might have played a role in the dip. With the duration of the Iran war still an unknown, consumer confidence could shift downward if the conflict in the Middle East lingers on.

Some jobs make it easier to become a homeowner than others: According to the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR), homeownership patterns by occupation have remained relatively stable over the past decade, with management and business professionals still the most likely to own homes, followed by education and social service workers. In more than 60% of metro areas, the occupation most likely to own a home today is different from a decade ago, reflecting shifting housing costs and job concentrations. High‑earning occupations, such as engineers and tech workers, often face lower homeownership rates in expensive coastal markets, while moderate‑income workers—such as teachers, construction workers, and service employees—achieve higher ownership rates in more affordable regions. Notably, service workers remain the least likely to own homes nationally, but they recorded the largest gains over the past decade.Note: This summary report gets updated every Monday by 6:00 pm PST. Feel free to email us at [email protected] if you have any questions and/or feedback.

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